Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4580 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4580 DCA 06:00 → MCO 08:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 2523 DCA 18:55 → MCO 21:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4580 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MCO 08:20	3%	1%	10.3%	95%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	7%	3%	10.3%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	7%	2%	11.9%	90%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MCO 10:14	10%	3%	10.1%	97%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	11%	4%	11.3%	79%
AA 2104 American Flight history →	DCA 09:00	MCO 11:28	14%	4%	15.7%	90%
AA 2062 American Flight history →	DCA 11:25	MCO 13:51	16%	6%	16.7%	87%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	22%	9%	16.8%	71%
WN 1440 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 13:05	MCO 15:25	25%	9%	17.5%	57%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 13:50	MCO 16:18	26%	8%	16.9%	54%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 17:25	MCO 19:56	28%	14%	17.6%	57%
WN 1441 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:25	MCO 20:00	33%	14%	17.3%	32%
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	35%	19%	16.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON