Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1442 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1442 DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1447 DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1442 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 07:30	MDW 08:25	6%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 1444 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 09:25	MDW 10:20	12%	2%	0.8%	86%
WN 1445 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MDW 13:00	15%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 4479 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:35	MDW 16:45	17%	5%	0.8%	62%
WN 1448 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 21:00	MDW 22:05	20%	7%	0.8%	46%
WN 1447 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:05	MDW 20:15	20%	7%	0.8%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON