Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5091 DCA 08:39 → MEM 10:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 5491 DCA 20:00 → MEM 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5091 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:39	MEM 10:05	16%	4%	1.0%	69%
AA 4460 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:59	MEM 17:31	16%	5%	0.8%	63%
AA 5491 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:00	MEM 21:25	25%	10%	1.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON