Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1612 DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	5%	2%	1.3%	93%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 06:02	MIA 08:50	6%	2%	1.3%	93%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	15%	4%	1.4%	84%
AA 1173 American Flight history →	DCA 09:55	MIA 12:38	20%	5%	2.6%	88%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	27%	6%	2.1%	76%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	DCA 14:59	MIA 17:48	29%	11%	1.3%	75%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	MIA 16:29	29%	10%	1.4%	70%
AA 1233 American Flight history →	DCA 20:40	MIA 23:28	30%	11%	1.4%	63%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	30%	12%	1.1%	67%
AA 3244 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MIA 21:45	35%	12%	1.5%	49%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 17:40	MIA 20:34	36%	12%	1.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON