Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1450 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1450 DCA 07:35 → MKE 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5656 DCA 22:00 → MKE 23:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1450 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 07:35	MKE 08:35	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 5286 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:23	MKE 12:34	17%	7%	1.2%	73%
WN 363 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:45	MKE 16:55	20%	7%	0.7%	48%
AA 5656 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	MKE 23:09	22%	11%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON