Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1193 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1193 DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5506 DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1193 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MSP 07:35	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1493 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MSP 09:25	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 3796 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 10:30	MSP 12:20	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MSP 13:41	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 2863 Delta Flight history →	DCA 15:00	MSP 16:49	16%	5%	0.6%	61%
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	19%	7%	0.6%	74%
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:23	MSP 17:15	30%	10%	1.0%	33%
AA 5506 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	MSP 21:54	31%	10%	1.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON