Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3175 at 11:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3175 DCA 11:45 → MSY 13:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 1453 DCA 19:10 → MSY 20:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3175 American Flight history →	DCA 11:45	MSY 13:27	14%	5%	1.2%	70%
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	MSY 10:27	15%	4%	1.3%	75%
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 11:35	MSY 13:10	17%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	MSY 15:53	20%	7%	2.1%	67%
WN 1453 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:10	MSY 20:50	28%	8%	8.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON