Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4649 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4649 DCA 08:31 → MVY 10:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 1414 DCA 12:56 → MVY 14:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4649 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:31	MVY 10:11	10%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 4572 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:24	MVY 17:00	15%	4%	0.7%	58%
B6 1414 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 12:56	MVY 14:19	20%	8%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON