tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5300 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 09:44 MYR 11:22 11% 5% 2.0% 83%
YX 4764 Republic DCA 17:28 MYR 19:09 18% 7% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 18m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 06:35 → BNA 07:25WN 1425 3h 35m Nashville BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412 6h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 39m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 01m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 2h 32m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 7h 04m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 4h 47m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 07:30 → MYR 08:36AA 5555 · flown by PSA 3h 36m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 12:00 → STL 13:15WN 4752 3h 20m St Louis STL 16:35 → MYR 19:30WN 3027 7h 30m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:26 → LGA 18:57AA 4685 · flown by Republic 1h 16m New York LGA 20:13 → MYR 22:20AA 4335 · flown by Republic 4h 54m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:39 → CLT 15:19AA 5022 · flown by PSA 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 16:19 → MYR 17:25AA 2212 3h 46m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON