Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	8h 10m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978	3h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 21:55 → OAK 23:30WN 2289	10h 05m	95%	65%
Southwest Details →	DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → OAK 00:15 +1WN 4042	8h 10m	89%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DCA 08:59 → SAN 11:39AS 15	51m San Diego	SAN 12:30 → OAK 14:10AS 3218 · flown by SkyWest	8h 11m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON