Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5138 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	OKC 16:20	25%	10%	1.6%	59%
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:30	OKC 18:35	30%	9%	0.6%	27%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	7h 12m	99%	87%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56AA 3731 · flown by Envoy	7h 56m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15WN 4114	5h 45m	97%	87%
United Details →	DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190	3h 16m Houston	IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	8h 17m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10WN 1268	2h 35m Dallas	DAL 10:45 → OKC 11:45WN 4128	6h 35m	100%	85%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 54m Houston	IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa	8h 55m	99%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 33m Houston	IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 22m	99%	83%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 09:03 → OKC 11:40UA 5614 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON