tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5608 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:15 OMA 10:13 8% 2% 0.7% 87%
WN 3050 Southwest Flight history → DCA 16:55 OMA 18:40 30% 6% 0.6% 27%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125 7h 45m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa 9h 11m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:35 → ORD 12:53AA 489 3h 13m Chicago ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic 7h 21m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 06m Detroit DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:46DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 09:25 → MDW 10:20WN 1444 3h 50m Chicago MDW 14:10 → OMA 15:40WN 435 7h 15m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 1h 45m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OMA 11:35WN 2984 5h 05m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 13:42 → ATL 15:33DL 737 52m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 5h 06m 73% 60%
FrontierDetails → DCA 13:59 → DEN 15:53F9 687 47m Denver DEN 16:40 → OMA 19:15F9 1874 6h 16m 58% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON