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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 9h 03m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 3h 20m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 9h 20m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:29AA 2238 7h 29m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 10:35 → BNA 11:30WN 1426 2h 25m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 8h 25m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 3h 17m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 00m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 26m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 21m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 7h 13m 92% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 46m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 7h 41m 73% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON