Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1793 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1793 DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5450 DCA 20:00 → ORD 21:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	5%	2%	1.0%	92%
UA 2201 United Flight history →	DCA 10:30	ORD 11:48	8%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	DCA 07:15	ORD 08:28	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	9%	3%	1.3%	94%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	9%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 4360 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:23	ORD 10:00	10%	3%	1.1%	86%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 10:13	ORD 11:33	11%	5%	1.3%	78%
UA 374 United Flight history →	DCA 11:57	ORD 13:15	11%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:10	ORD 23:30	11%	4%	1.6%	75%
AA 489 American Flight history →	DCA 11:35	ORD 12:53	12%	6%	1.1%	83%
AA 2304 American Flight history →	DCA 07:43	ORD 09:00	12%	4%	1.1%	83%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	13%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	14%	5%	0.9%	71%
AA 2398 American Flight history →	DCA 13:59	ORD 15:23	15%	8%	1.1%	61%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	16%	5%	0.9%	66%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DCA 15:57	ORD 17:29	18%	8%	1.4%	73%
AA 2903 American Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:42	20%	7%	1.3%	77%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	20%	5%	0.9%	51%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	22%	6%	0.9%	50%
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	22%	5%	0.9%	58%
AA 1630 American Flight history →	DCA 17:22	ORD 18:54	24%	9%	1.1%	64%
UA 5450 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DCA 20:00	ORD 21:35	25%	10%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON