Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4431 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4431 DCA 08:00 → PBI 10:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 23 DCA 18:00 → PBI 20:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:00	PBI 10:49	12%	2%	1.0%	78%
B6 2433 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 09:55	PBI 12:23	22%	7%	1.5%	82%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	PBI 14:28	26%	8%	6.1%	71%
B6 23 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:00	PBI 20:35	37%	20%	2.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON