tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 9 Alaska Flight history → DCA 17:16 PDX 20:04 21% 5% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 9h 38m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 01m New York JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574 8h 30m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 14m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 8h 08m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 35m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 56m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 47m Chicago ORD 13:30 → PDX 15:57UA 2817 10h 32m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 46m Minneapolis MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391 7h 19m 74% 62%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 49m Detroit DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913 7h 19m 62% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON