Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5406 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:39	PHL 17:53	27%	14%	1.0%	39%
AA 5474 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:30	PHL 14:38	27%	12%	0.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Boston	BOS 10:50 → PHL 12:28DL 5805 · flown by Republic	6h 28m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	5h 46m	99%	90%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → ACK 10:09AA 4543 · flown by Republic	2h 47m Nantucket	ACK 12:56 → PHL 14:40AA 4735 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	6h 58m	97%	89%
American Details →	DCA 06:40 → CLE 08:16AA 4737 · flown by Republic	2h 36m Cleveland	CLE 10:52 → PHL 12:28AA 5847 · flown by Piedmont	5h 48m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	96%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:30 → IND 08:26AA 4664 · flown by Republic	2h 32m Indianapolis	IND 10:58 → PHL 12:56AA 5209 · flown by PSA	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 25m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DCA 13:00 → BNA 13:50WN 1427	55m Nashville	BNA 14:45 → PHL 17:50WN 626	4h 50m	66%	47%
American Details →	DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207	50m Boston	BOS 19:37 → PHL 21:20AA 1147	4h 20m	67%	45%
American Details →	DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062	46m Orlando	MCO 14:37 → PHL 17:20AA 2125	5h 55m	64%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON