Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5323 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 5323 DCA 07:40 → PIT 08:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1985 DCA 17:00 → PIT 18:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5323 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:40	PIT 08:54	12%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 4796 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	PIT 16:18	13%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 4763 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 21:59	PIT 23:13	14%	3%	0.8%	69%
AA 1985 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	PIT 18:14	31%	11%	0.7%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON