Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3529 at 10:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3529 DCA 10:50 → PVD 12:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 5017 DCA 22:28 → PVD 23:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3529 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 10:50	PVD 12:15	8%	2%	0.6%	98%
AA 5337 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:00	PVD 11:30	10%	4%	1.0%	76%
AA 5334 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	PVD 14:30	14%	7%	1.0%	67%
AA 4679 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:59	PVD 20:34	16%	5%	1.0%	65%
AA 337 American Flight history →	DCA 15:29	PVD 17:02	16%	6%	0.8%	64%
WN 284 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:25	PVD 17:55	19%	5%	0.6%	42%
AA 5017 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:28	PVD 23:59	19%	8%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON