Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4700 at 11:24 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 4700 DCA 11:24 → RDU 12:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2083 DCA 20:00 → RDU 21:12 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:24	RDU 12:44	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 5581 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:50	RDU 10:15	19%	7%	1.2%	75%
AA 5367 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:28	RDU 15:59	29%	14%	1.3%	56%
OH 5596 PSA	DCA 17:59	RDU 19:26	32%	14%	1.5%	no record
AA 5347 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:54	RDU 17:25	33%	15%	1.4%	47%
AA 2083 American Flight history →	DCA 20:00	RDU 21:12	39%	11%	0.9%	57%
DL 5269 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 07:59	RDU 09:09	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
DL 5322 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:47	RDU 19:21	37%	14%	2.5%	63%
DL 5428 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 22:05	RDU 23:19	40%	16%	7.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON