Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2448 American Flight history →	DCA 10:46	RSW 13:24	22%	8%	17.3%	74%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	DCA 13:59	RSW 16:37	28%	10%	15.0%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	7h 29m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 27m	97%	73%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	1h 38m Houston	IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361	7h 32m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	56m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → RSW 11:15DL 1797	5h 15m	94%	68%
United Details →	DCA 11:57 → ORD 13:15UA 374	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	8h 37m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	7h 36m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 43m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 11m	99%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet	1h 03m Newark	EWR 19:06 → RSW 22:17UA 1845	5h 47m	60%	37%
Southwest Details →	DCA 17:25 → MCO 20:00WN 1441	50m Orlando	MCO 20:50 → RSW 22:00WN 4709	4h 35m	61%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON