Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 15 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 08:59	SAN 11:39	24%	4%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 26m New York	JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683	8h 49m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 38m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 39m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 09m	99%	82%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	7h 51m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712	8h 34m	99%	82%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683	10h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896	7h 27m	71%	52%
United Details →	DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	1h 19m Newark	EWR 20:47 → SAN 23:40UA 1513	8h 45m	68%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON