tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1947 American Flight history → DCA 18:32 SAT 21:13 27% 8% 0.7% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10WN 1268 1h 40m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 5h 45m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 2h 10m Chicago MDW 10:35 → SAT 13:15WN 2570 6h 45m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 6h 09m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 26m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 24m Chicago ORD 09:10 → SAT 12:12UA 490 6h 42m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 01m New York JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166 6h 36m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 7h 52m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 1h 00m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 5h 53m 73% 53%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 4526 8h 45m 63% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON