Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4618 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4618 DCA 06:55 → SAV 08:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 5384 DCA 20:01 → SAV 21:57 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4618 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:55	SAV 08:51	7%	2%	0.9%	100%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:55	SAV 18:59	27%	12%	1.8%	54%
AA 5384 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	SAV 21:57	31%	11%	1.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON