Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	9h 01m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	86%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 47m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882	9h 03m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	8h 00m	97%	83%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243	1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:15 → SJC 10:49AA 2572	8h 49m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 25m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 49m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	8h 54m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41DL 786	49m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	9h 13m	73%	61%
Southwest Details →	DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 19:35 → SJC 21:05WN 3865	7h 40m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON