Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 820 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:45	SLC 20:41	23%	6%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 08:15 → OMA 10:13DL 5608 · flown by Republic	2h 26m Omaha	OMA 12:39 → SLC 14:24DL 3815 · flown by SkyWest	8h 09m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:01 → BNA 11:00DL 5783 · flown by Republic	3h 01m Nashville	BNA 14:01 → SLC 16:37DL 1593	8h 36m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:06 → JFK 07:29DL 5802 · flown by Republic	3h 45m New York	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	10h 15m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic	3h 30m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	10h 20m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 51m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951	6h 55m	96%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	6h 46m	75%	57%
Southwest Details →	DCA 17:20 → DAL 19:30WN 1403	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 20:40 → SLC 22:20WN 4633	7h 00m	70%	43%
JetBlue Details →	DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41B6 2954	51m Boston	BOS 19:32 → SLC 22:59B6 247	7h 59m	57%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON