tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 7h 33m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 2h 58m Houston IAH 20:12 → SNA 21:45UA 2761 9h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 49m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 8h 43m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 54m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 51m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 9h 32m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON