tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2697 at 08:20, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2697 American Flight history → DCA 08:20 SRQ 10:53 14% 5% 17.9% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438 7h 14m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693 5h 50m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:20 → LGA 07:30DL 1172 2h 58m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 7h 13m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638 2h 42m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 7h 57m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 01m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115 6h 26m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 6h 15m 92% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:55 → MIA 21:45AA 3244 1h 09m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 04m 72% 43%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 17:25 → MCO 20:00WN 1441 50m Orlando MCO 20:50 → SRQ 22:00WN 2710 4h 35m 61% 29%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 49m Newark EWR 20:17 → SRQ 23:23UA 1324 5h 28m 49% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON