Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4853 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4853 DCA 08:00 → STL 09:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 1462 DCA 18:40 → STL 20:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4853 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 08:00	STL 09:10	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 5413 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:35	STL 10:01	17%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 4468 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:00	STL 16:29	18%	4%	0.8%	61%
WN 4752 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:00	STL 13:15	18%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 3028 American Flight history →	DCA 20:00	STL 21:21	24%	8%	0.7%	56%
WN 1461 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:35	STL 15:50	26%	5%	0.6%	43%
WN 1462 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:40	STL 20:00	28%	6%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON