Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2739 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2739 DCA 06:55 → TPA 09:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 544 DCA 18:51 → TPA 21:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2739 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:55	TPA 09:20	5%	1%	17.2%	96%
AA 2775 American Flight history →	DCA 07:29	TPA 09:58	8%	3%	17.3%	86%
AA 2852 American Flight history →	DCA 10:15	TPA 12:40	14%	4%	17.3%	81%
WN 1464 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 13:10	TPA 15:35	25%	6%	17.2%	30%
AA 2773 American Flight history →	DCA 15:46	TPA 18:15	30%	8%	17.3%	55%
AA 544 American Flight history →	DCA 18:51	TPA 21:18	31%	9%	17.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON