tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5423 at 13:44, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5423 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 13:44 TUL 15:47 21% 8% 1.1% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 1h 35m Chicago MDW 10:00 → TUL 11:50WN 680 5h 20m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 8h 18m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → TUL 13:36UA 5413 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → LGA 08:20AA 4393 · flown by Republic 2h 40m New York LGA 11:00 → TUL 13:28AA 4619 · flown by Republic 7h 29m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581 3h 33m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → TUL 12:59AA 2853 7h 41m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 37m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 55m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 48m Chicago ORD 21:20 → TUL 23:25UA 1658 5h 15m 67% 55%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 51m Miami MIA 21:25 → TUL 23:43AA 3380 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 56% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON