Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4138 at 11:20, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4138 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 11:20	TVC 13:27	16%	3%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:39AA 1550	2h 31m Boston	BOS 10:10 → TVC 12:41AA 4516 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	99%	86%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	3h 17m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	7h 00m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:05 → BOS 11:48DL 5611 · flown by Republic	2h 18m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:20 → LGA 07:30DL 1172	1h 20m New York	LGA 08:50 → TVC 11:11DL 5621 · flown by Republic	4h 51m	94%	81%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → TVC 11:39AA 5433 · flown by PSA	6h 39m	99%	80%
United Details →	DCA 07:15 → ORD 08:28UA 2638	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	5h 58m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	53m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 44m	73%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON