Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3224 at 10:57, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3224 American Flight history →	DCA 10:57	VPS 12:20	21%	5%	0.8%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:59 → ATL 08:53DL 330	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	6h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	7h 00m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	DCA 06:10 → DAL 08:10WN 1268	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205	6h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	7h 05m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 13:42 → ATL 15:33DL 737	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	6h 00m	96%	83%
American Details →	DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02AA 2671	6h 44m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DCA 12:35 → HOU 14:45WN 1433	50m Houston	HOU 15:35 → VPS 17:20WN 4108	5h 45m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON