Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	18%	6%	1.2%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → XNA 11:08DL 3536 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	88%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → CLT 06:26AA 365	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 09:01 → XNA 10:35AA 5446 · flown by PSA	6h 35m	99%	87%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	99%	86%
American Details →	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 28m	99%	86%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 51m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 55m	99%	85%
American Details →	DCA 06:18 → CLT 07:57AA 1581	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → XNA 13:12AA 5444 · flown by PSA	7h 54m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 08:23 → ORD 10:00AA 4360 · flown by Republic	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → XNA 13:41AA 3848 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 13:39 → CLT 15:19AA 5022 · flown by PSA	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 16:19 → XNA 17:53AA 5443 · flown by PSA	5h 14m	74%	62%
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	48m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → XNA 00:26 +1AA 3960 · flown by Envoy	5h 20m	72%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON