Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3056 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3056 DEN 07:50 → ABQ 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 138 DEN 18:50 → ABQ 20:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3056 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	ABQ 09:15	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
UA 5487 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	ABQ 09:33	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 4761 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	ABQ 22:43	16%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 1402 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ABQ 12:37	16%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:20	ABQ 12:40	16%	2%	0.5%	85%
UA 691 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	ABQ 15:12	17%	6%	0.5%	78%
UA 4760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:38	ABQ 17:16	18%	8%	0.5%	73%
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ABQ 20:44	22%	8%	0.5%	73%
WN 4634 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:05	ABQ 17:35	23%	7%	0.5%	60%
WN 1468 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	ABQ 22:25	27%	8%	0.5%	49%
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:50	ABQ 20:15	28%	9%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON