tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5506 at 11:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5506 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 11:20 ACV 13:24 18% 9% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 13m Los Angeles LAX 12:45 → ACV 14:48UA 5384 · flown by SkyWest 7h 48m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:22 → ACV 22:50UA 5626 · flown by SkyWest 8h 03m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 95% 68%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 1h 44m Seattle SEA 12:26 → ACV 14:13AS 3220 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 27m San Francisco SFO 16:31 → ACV 18:03UA 5480 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON