tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 14:10 AMA 16:43 18% 6% 0.6% 83%
UA 5494 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 19:20 AMA 21:50 25% 6% 0.7% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106 1h 55m Las Vegas LAS 08:35 → AMA 12:40WN 2096 5h 55m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:35 → AUS 09:40WN 1474 3h 40m Austin AUS 13:20 → AMA 14:40WN 250 7h 05m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:23 → AMA 12:42AA 3384 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:15 → DAL 09:10WN 1517 3h 25m Dallas DAL 12:35 → AMA 13:50WN 380 6h 35m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 58m Houston IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 21m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 3h 30m Houston IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 00m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:22 → DFW 10:29AA 1090 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → AMA 15:46AA 3387 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → AMA 18:34AA 3388 · flown by Envoy 6h 56m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → AMA 15:46AA 3387 · flown by Envoy 4h 08m 74% 62%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 17:50 → DAL 21:05WN 1521 50m Dallas DAL 21:55 → AMA 23:15WN 1260 4h 25m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON