Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 394 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 394 DEN 07:40 → ANC 11:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2811 DEN 17:45 → ANC 21:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 394 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	ANC 11:10	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 280 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	ANC 14:53	16%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 400 United Flight history →	DEN 20:25	ANC 23:59	19%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 1592 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	ANC 19:12	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 432 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 07:20	ANC 10:56	20%	3%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
WN 2811 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:45	ANC 21:15	34%	7%	0.6%	32%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	DEN 06:02 → SEA 08:05AS 643	1h 16m Seattle	SEA 09:21 → ANC 12:00AS 357	7h 58m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:55 → SEA 14:53AS 381	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99	7h 42m	79%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON