Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1472 DEN 19:05 → ATL 00:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 302 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:40	ATL 05:42	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2235 Delta Flight history →	DEN 09:39	ATL 14:35	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
F9 3294 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:30	ATL 11:38	12%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 2424 United Flight history →	DEN 10:00	ATL 15:09	12%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 824 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:10	ATL 18:10	17%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	ATL 18:30	18%	6%	0.5%	79%
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:49	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	DEN 17:48	ATL 22:57	22%	8%	0.6%	72%
WN 2258 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:45	ATL 15:35	25%	3%	0.5%	64%
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:59	ATL 05:21	26%	9%	0.7%	65%
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	27%	7%	0.7%	75%
WN 4170 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	ATL 19:30	33%	7%	0.5%	31%
WN 1472 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	ATL 00:10	35%	8%	0.5%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON