Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1204 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	ATW 21:04	19%	8%	0.6%	57%
G4 1562 Allegiant Flight history →	DEN 19:18	ATW 22:39	25%	10%	0.7%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:35 → ATW 12:09AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	8h 21m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 09:19 → MSP 12:14DL 1675	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → ATW 15:30DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	5h 11m	97%	82%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	7h 22m	97%	78%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:44UA 2430	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:25 → DTW 15:19DL 2787	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	2h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON