Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 411 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 411 DEN 05:00 → AUS 08:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4463 DEN 19:45 → AUS 23:05 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 411 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:00	AUS 08:05	2%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 1474 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:35	AUS 09:40	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 2263 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	AUS 13:20	13%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	AUS 13:20	14%	4%	0.5%	82%
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	16%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	19%	8%	0.6%	67%
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	20%	8%	0.5%	83%
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	20%	9%	0.5%	78%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	20%	9%	0.6%	75%
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:15	AUS 13:30	20%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 4610 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:20	AUS 14:30	20%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 1476 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:40	AUS 15:50	21%	5%	0.6%	48%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	AUS 22:51	21%	7%	0.6%	70%
WN 553 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	AUS 16:30	24%	5%	0.6%	48%
WN 1478 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:30	AUS 17:40	25%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 1481 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:50	AUS 00:10	25%	6%	0.6%	47%
F9 2890 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:52	AUS 00:07	25%	10%	0.8%	65%
WN 4463 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:45	AUS 23:05	30%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON