Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1464 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	AVL 14:39	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
G4 269 Allegiant	DEN 08:03	AVL 13:06	15%	2%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16DL 3077	6h 36m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	5h 27m	98%	83%
American Details →	DEN 09:08 → ORD 12:56AA 1747	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 15:29 → AVL 18:25AA 3406 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	99%	82%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 38m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	5h 25m	97%	81%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:30 → AVL 22:56AA 4260 · flown by Envoy	8h 17m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	7h 36m	99%	77%
American Details →	DEN 14:34 → ORD 18:29AA 1760	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:29 → AVL 00:23 +1AA 3493 · flown by Envoy	7h 49m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 15:13 → PHL 20:59AA 1759	51m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → AVL 23:58AA 6093 · flown by Piedmont	6h 45m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON