Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2643 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2643 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	BDL 15:37	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2254 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	BDL 23:44	19%	5%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30DL 2951	7h 50m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 07:05 → BDL 08:48DL 2859	5h 49m	96%	88%
United Details →	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	3h 03m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444	8h 06m	97%	87%
United Details →	DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279	59m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → BDL 14:06UA 632	5h 53m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	DEN 05:30 → BWI 10:55WN 899	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 12:50 → BDL 14:10WN 1143	6h 40m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	8h 13m	99%	85%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195	6h 24m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	8h 31m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824	46m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	6h 09m	61%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON