Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1241 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1241 DEN 10:15 → BHM 14:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1981 DEN 19:25 → BHM 23:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1241 United Flight history →	DEN 10:15	BHM 14:03	14%	5%	0.5%	81%
WN 3193 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	BHM 13:40	16%	3%	0.5%	65%
UA 5815 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	BHM 21:55	25%	7%	0.5%	80%
WN 1981 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BHM 23:05	37%	9%	0.5%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON