Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1483 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1483 DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4429 DEN 20:10 → BNA 23:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1483 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:45	BNA 09:15	3%	1%	0.5%	91%
UA 605 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	BNA 11:42	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 1022 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:15	BNA 10:45	7%	1%	0.5%	92%
UA 1048 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	BNA 13:33	10%	3%	0.5%	81%
WN 1485 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	BNA 13:40	15%	2%	0.5%	70%
UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	17%	5%	0.5%	72%
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	20%	7%	0.5%	74%
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:56	BNA 11:32	20%	5%	0.7%	81%
WN 570 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:55	BNA 16:20	25%	4%	0.5%	24%
WN 2597 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:30	BNA 19:05	26%	6%	0.5%	34%
WN 1488 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:25	BNA 22:05	28%	7%	0.6%	32%
WN 4429 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:10	BNA 23:45	28%	6%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON