Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 818 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 818 DEN 07:45 → BOI 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3806 DEN 20:55 → BOI 23:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 818 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOI 09:45	5%	1%	0.4%	90%
UA 4765 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOI 09:53	6%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:36	BOI 13:35	12%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 5923 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BOI 22:37	14%	6%	0.5%	71%
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	19%	5%	0.5%	67%
UA 2014 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BOI 21:29	19%	6%	0.5%	73%
WN 1491 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:50	BOI 14:45	20%	3%	0.5%	62%
WN 3806 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	BOI 23:00	25%	7%	0.5%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON