Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 248 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BUF 22:58	24%	10%	0.6%	63%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:10	BUF 17:15	27%	8%	0.6%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	8h 31m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 07:00 → BUF 08:14DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	95%	86%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:44UA 2430	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226	6h 41m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	DEN 07:10 → MDW 10:30WN 114	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → BUF 15:30WN 1655	6h 20m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	8h 18m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	DEN 05:30 → BWI 10:55WN 899	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 13:00 → BUF 14:15WN 894	6h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 09:19 → MSP 12:14DL 1675	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	7h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest	7h 08m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON