Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 899 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 899 DEN 05:30 → BWI 10:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 1500 DEN 19:05 → BWI 00:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 899 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:30	BWI 10:55	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 1498 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:00	BWI 12:25	7%	1%	0.6%	83%
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1501 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 23:50	BWI 05:15	16%	3%	0.6%	66%
UA 1646 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	BWI 23:30	21%	8%	0.6%	51%
WN 4434 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	BWI 17:15	25%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 1045 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	BWI 20:00	30%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 1499 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:05	BWI 23:45	34%	8%	0.6%	39%
WN 1500 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	BWI 00:35	36%	7%	0.6%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON