Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 826 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 826 DEN 07:50 → BZN 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4790 DEN 16:50 → BZN 18:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 826 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	BZN 09:35	5%	1%	0.5%	83%
UA 348 United Flight history →	DEN 07:53	BZN 09:37	6%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 1248 United Flight history →	DEN 11:32	BZN 13:20	12%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 6030 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:15	BZN 17:10	13%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	BZN 15:33	13%	5%	0.5%	85%
WN 4219 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	BZN 14:10	14%	4%	0.5%	47%
UA 1347 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BZN 21:14	15%	6%	0.5%	80%
WN 1505 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:45	BZN 23:35	18%	6%	0.5%	46%
WN 4790 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	BZN 18:35	18%	6%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON