tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Charleston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1003 United Flight history → DEN 09:50 CHS 15:14 11% 3% 0.8% 85%
WN 1142 Southwest Flight history → DEN 15:20 CHS 20:40 29% 6% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 07:40 → CHS 09:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 6h 20m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CHS 14:15DL 2463 6h 15m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:35 → AUS 09:40WN 1474 3h 25m Austin AUS 13:05 → CHS 16:45WN 269 8h 10m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 8h 08m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 54m Dulles IAD 12:35 → CHS 14:27UA 3487 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 94% 83%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483 55m Nashville BNA 10:10 → CHS 12:40WN 469 4h 55m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 8h 16m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 53m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06UA 3646 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 93% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:13 → PHL 20:59AA 1759 56m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → CHS 23:55AA 5068 · flown by PSA 6h 42m 70% 52%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:17 → CHS 22:55AA 2559 5h 44m 73% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON